Just The Numbers: Behind Sanders-Wiggins 2010: Wiggins picking up votes from strange places...

Monday, November 8, 2010

Wiggins picking up votes from strange places...

Kitsap and Island county just posted. Kitsap counted under 25% of the ballots that I was expecting them to count today (2,720 instead of 11,200), so that obviously adjusts the math somewhat.

But Wiggins actually gained net votes out of Island county. Island had been going for Sanders, barely (SMOV of 50.9%). Today, Wiggins netted 12 new votes, and the SMOV fell to 29.74%.

If that were an isolated occurrence, I'd be prepared to write it off. But the SMOV unexpectedly swung to favor Wiggins in several other counties:

Clark:
Expected:  SMOV of 52.4%, expected to produce 50 +SAND on 1400 new votes.
Actual: SMOV of 46.22% (-6.2%!), produced 44 +WIGG on 813 new votes.

Klickitat
Expected:  SMOV of 57.6%, expected to produce 45 +SAND on 408 new votes.
Actual: SMOV of 49.72% (-8.4%!!), produced 2 +WIGG on 523 new votes.

Pend Oreille
Expected:  SMOV of 55.3%, expected to produce 14 +SAND on 192 new votes.
Actual: SMOV of 45.74% (-9.6%!!!), produced 11 +WIGG on 173 new votes.

Whitman
Expected:  SMOV of 51.6%, expected to produce 18 +SAND on 800 new votes.
Actual: SMOV of 48.56% (-3.0%), produced 36 +WIGG on 1724 new votes.

Obviously, we're dealing with a pretty small number of votes. So I would expect to see major swings on these smaller sample sizes. But it's hard to ignore that Wiggins seems to be gaining late ground in many counties that were solidly in the Sanders column.

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Terminology

The Terminology post is quickly working its way down the page, so here it is, reproduced at the top, for all time. A quick introduction to the terminology I use on this blog:

SMOV: Sanders Margin of Victory (%). Within a defined universe of ballots (say, one particular county's ballots on one particular day), it refers to the percentage of ballots cast for Sanders. [Ed. Note: I'm not expressing an ideological preference: as of this posting, Justice Sanders is leading the race; and using the leading candidate makes the math easier.] Accordingly, a SMOV of 51% means that if 100 ballots were cast, Sanders received 51 and Wiggins received 49.

VCR: Votes Cast in Race (# or %). Not every ballot contains a vote for Sanders or Wiggins. Indeed, on average so far, just under 77% of all ballots cast have contained a vote for either candidate. Some voters may have chosen to write in a candidate -- it's even possible that they may have chosen to write in Sanders or Wiggins, which creates some interesting possibilities (which may be explored in a later blog post). But largely, it's because people chose not to vote in this particular race. They may have been single-issue voters (i.e. the U.S. Senate race), or they may have only cared about the initiatives; I have several friends who only cared about I-1100 and I-1105. Or they may have just stopped at the first page and decided to go do something else. Either way, the VCR% plays a big role in our analysis.

EBOH: Estimated Ballots on Hand (#). This refers to the number of ballots that each county is estimating still remains to be counted. EBOH x VCR% would yield the total number of votes that still remain to be allocated between the two candidates. Note that EBOH is not a static number. Each day in which votes are counted should result in a net decreate in the EBOH total, as votes from that category are counted and allocated to the candidates. However, some ballots may be disqualified for any number of reasons; further, disqualified ballots may be later added back to the EBOH pile if they are later verified by affidavit. Furthermore, ballots may still be arriving, which would increase the EBOH total. Although most of these ballots will be disqualified for being postmarked after election day, some may be from overseas military voters or may be correctly postmarked and will be counted.

SAND or WIGG: I sometimes refer to the candidates as SAND (Sanders) or WIGG (Wiggins) for short. I intend no disrespect.

KPS: A reference to King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties, the three largest counties in Washington in terms of registered voters. There are 3,601,152 registered voters (as of Election Day 2010) in Washington; King has 1,069,791 (29.71%), Pierce has 410,081 (11.39%); and Snohomish has 377,739 (10.49%), for a total of 51.58% of all registered voters in Washington.

KPSS: Same as KPS, but add Spokane county; it has 261, 250 (7.25%). KPSS together has 58.84% of the total registered voters in Washington.

KPSSCTKW, or THE BIG EIGHT: Yes, this probably seems a little ridiculous, but stay with me. Same as KPSS, but now add the counties of Clark (219,616, 6.10%), Thurston (149,024, 4.14%), Kitsap (143,796, 3.99%), and Whatcom (116,576, 3.24%). The Big Eight are the counties with over 100,000 registered voters each, and together, they comprise 76.31% of the total registered voters in Washington. [Ed. Note: Yakima is very close to joining this club at 99,568; sorry Yakimanians, I had to draw the line somewhere. Go sign up 432 more voters, and you're in! (next time)]